The updated GFS model can, for instance, visualize thunderstorms in a way previous versions couldn't. GFS-FV3 utilizes a new dynamical core ( Finite Volume Cubed-Sphere) that gives the model improved resolution and accuracy. The GFS model, often referred to as "the American model" in weather forecasts, is one of two major global weather models-the other being the much-vaunted European model-that meteorologists use to guide their forecasting process. In other words, certain situations can cause the model to exaggerate cold and snowy weather like a Twitter account that inexplicably has a five-figure following. The model forecasts exhibit a cold bias in the lower atmosphere that became more prominent after late September 2018. Techniques that use either of these variables for deriving snowfall will exhibit excessive snowfall values. The snow depth and the water equivalent of snow depth at the surface have unrealistically large values when precipitation occurs in environments with low-level temperature profiles close to freezing. NOAA's press release covers the issues scientists still have to resolve before it goes operational: The update's release, which had been scheduled for the middle of March, was already pushed back once due to the government shutdown in January. NOAA announced on Tuesday that the agency will delay the release of the updated GFS weather model because they accidentally gave it the personality of a husky. What's 1,075 tornadoes in the grand scheme of things? How many tornadoes constitutes an outbreak? How many tornadoes does it take to destroy your house? You could make basically the same argument when it comes to hurricane season predictions, but at least those involve ranges and some general vagueness. Whether or not it's accurate doesn't even begin to approach the fact that it's not scientifically justifiable to predict an exact number of tornadoes for the year or tell us what the weather's going to be like with mind-bending specificity 2,160 hours from now.Ī specific number of tornadoes doesn't really help people much, anyway. They know that people are going to read this PR stunt literally. And the tornado forecast they issued today isn't a trend, either. They say that the Sunday three months from today will see rain for three hours that amounts to two-tenths of an inch. Their forecast for May 26 issued on February 26 predicts an east wind of 7 MPH with gusts to 15 MPH.
uh, not accurate.and, even as they're justified as "just trends," they're certainly presented as a detailed weather forecast to their target audience.įor example, AccuWeather's forecast for my town for Sunday, May 26- 90 days from today-shows a high of 74☏ and a low of 54☏ with a 40% chance of thunderstorms. The company says that these forecasts are really trends to help you get a general idea of the weather in a few months, but they're. The company started releasing 45-day weather forecasts earlier this decade, stretching them out to 90 days after a couple of years.
MWEATHER MAP OF THE US FEBUARY 2019 SERIES
Predicting the exact number of tornadoes that will form this year-with no further explanation, no margin of error, just presented as if decreed by an oracle from on high-is the latest in a series of vanguard-ish stances taken by AccuWeather in recent years. The Pennsylvania-based weather company has a history of making maverick-adjacent moves when it comes to long-term weather prediction.
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